This One Could Be a Bit of a Challenge

Um, yeah

Sunday the Redskins fell to the Philadelphia Eagles 27-24 after leading most of the game then giving up on defense three times when they needed a stand the most. This was not good obviously as a Redskins fan. Though in the context of the season, it was another close NFC Beast divisional game, which are more often than not tight games even as the Redskins have become the definition of inferior.

This week's opponent is the New Orleans Saints. Last night I watched Drew Brees and company dismantle the New England Patriots, such an ass whooping did New Orleans lay on New England that Mr. Icy Heart himself, Patriots coach Bill Belichick felt obligated to linger in shame with Saints coach Sean Payton rather than give the perfunctory fuck you handshake at midfield after the game, and was seen making small talk with Saints quarterback Drew Brees on the field afterward.

So mighty are these 11-0 Saints that the Patriots, also known as King Assholes of the World are humbled before them. And we are the next victim.

Redskins fans, if you are holding on to anything this week think of this:

The Redskins opened 11-0 in 1991 before losing their first game.

And you may ask, how often do undefeated streaks make it through twelve games? Is it even a big deal?

Most recently The Patriots did it in 2007, an undefeated 16-0 on the way to Super Bowl defeat.

The Colts did it in 2005, winning thirteen straight before losing two while resting players for the playoffs.

The Broncos did it in 1998, opening the season with thirteen straight wins on the way to Super Bowl victory. That was Terrell Davis' 2000 yard rushing season.

Of course the Dolphins did it in 1972, an undefeated 14-0 on the way to Super Bowl victory over the Redskins.

And the Bears did it in 1934, going undefeated at 13-0.

That's it. All the great seasons of all the great teams in the NFL and a 12-0 start to the season has happened all of five times.

This week there are two opportunities for it to happen again and one of them is against the Redskins.


Statistical by product of this post: Did you know the Cardinals have never ever won twelve or more games in a season? They have been around since 1924.



Drew Brees: Getty Images from here.

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Banding the Redskins 2009 Schedule

Crosscutting the data

Once again we break down the Redskins schedule, today we present schedule bands for the upcoming 2009 season, Curly R generally eschews specific predictions for final record, there is simply too much that is unknown at the outset of the season.

In addition, as prototyped by 2007's 2-0 > 3-3 > 0-4 > 4-0 roller coaster, we have determined that the media friendly four four-game schedule quarters breakdown is not adequate to assess the projected flow of the season, the games tend to fall into clusters, or bands, with more meaningful milestones for evaluating the team's performance.

Once we determined the bands, we evaluated each one with our best and most realistic guesses as to their outcome in each of three scenarios: overperform, solid perform, underperform. Note that the overperform does not necessarily mean undefeated and the underperform does not mean winless. We considered location of game, opponent and adjacent games on the schedule.

Based on our assessment, Curly R is predicting a Redskins final 2009 record between 5-11 and 12-4 with 9-7 as the solid performer:

Band	Games	Overperform	Solid Perform	Underperform
1	1. @ Giants 2. vs. Rams 3. @ Lions 4. vs. Buccaneers 5. @ Panthers	4-1	3-2	2-3
2	6. vs. Chiefs 7. vs. Eagles BYE 8. @ Falcons	3-0	2-1	1-2
3	9. vs. Broncos 10. @ Cowboys 11. @ Eagles 12. vs. Saints	2-2	2-2	1-3
4	13. @ Raiders 14. vs. Giants 15. vs. Cowboys 16. @ Chargers	3-1	2-2	1-3
	Season record	12-4	9-7	5-11

Band three is the top difficulty, then band one, band two and finally band four.

As we evaluated band one, all five games are NFC conference games, with comparatively higher playoff implications, both 2008-schedule finisher NFC non-guest games, St. Louis and Detroit, are in this band, as well as two of the four NFC South guest division games. St. Louis, Detroit and Washington all finished fourth (last) in their divisions last season, this is why these teams are on the 2009 schedule.

Band two is a sampler platter, including an AFC West guest division home game, an NFC Beast divisional home game and an NFC South guest division road game. The bye comes in band two.

Band three is two road NFC Beast division games wrapped by a flaky crust of two home guest division games, one AFC West and one NFC South.

Band four is the inverse beast, two AFC West guest division road games with a nougaty center of two NFC Beast home games.

Note also that each band contains two guest division games.

For these predictions we used a variety of research inputs, in no particular order:

1. Belief and expectations in the Redskins improvement for 2009;

2. Belief and expectations for improvement by each team on the schedule;

3. Location of each game;

4. Massey Ratings for the two guest divisions, the NFC South was rated four of eight and the AFC West was rated seven of eight. It should be noted the Massey Ratings once again have the NFC Beast rated as the top division in the NFL.


Previous Redskins schedule bands: 2008



Burroughs adding machine from here.

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Curly R's Redskins Season Preview for MVN NFL Outsider

The possibilities

Most Valuable Network NFL Outsiders is running previews of all 32 NFL teams, written by bloggers covering those teams, last week MVN invited Curly R to submit a preview for the Redskins in 500 words or less, I am pleased to say after many revisions I came in just under the wire at 496 words:

New head coach Jim Zorn said 'stay medium', so the 2008 Washington Redskins did with an 8-8 record. How would an offense built by Joe Gibbs for smashmouth running and playaction passing continue adjusting in the 2009 offseason to a west coast offense premised on finesse?

The answer is, it really wouldn't, choosing undeniably to focus on improving what was already a top five defense in 2008. The result should be shorter opponents' possessions, better field position for the Washington offense and more room to develop for Jim Zorn's still-evolving offense.

Oft-injured and expensive CB Shawn Springs was finally released and was immediately replaced by DeAngelo Hall, a 2008 midseason signing after being released by Oakland eight games into a long term contract. If DeAngelo can keep his head and not go psycho prima donna, this will be a good signing, DeAngelo makes a good complement to opposite CB Carlos Rogers.

Then, three tenths of one second after the start of free agency, Washington landed their prize: Titans DT Albert Haynesworth. Albert is simply a dominant force, a gravity well around which offenses collapse and he will be a game changer. Assuming he can stay on the field for 16 games which he has only did once before. And control his rage. And not go to jail or miss too much time on trial for driving recklessly and hurting people. Or get suspended for colluding with Washington before free agency started. Or go into the big money slump. So yeah Albert could be good I guess.

Washington also made a free agency splash on offense, signing boomerang Redskin left guard Derrick Dockery but that was not so much splashing as toweling off and recovering from the 2007 loss of ... Derrick Dockery. Pete Kendall was an excellent stop gap but at 36 the team needed to get younger at LG.

Then Jay Cutler almost came to Washington blah blah the team worked real hard to alienate QB Jason Campbell etc etc Mark Sanchez yada yada since when is QB that important anyway?

When the draft rolled around in April, Washington, despite two OT in their 30s, selected DE/LB Brian Orapko out of Texas in the first round and a bunch of other guys that may some day be of consequence, with most of 2008's draft class still learning to lace em up we will have to wait on that. Cut Jon Jansen and throw in a couple of retread tackles, a 400 pound man and a supplemental draft pick, also on the defensive side of the ball and you have capped the Redskins 2009 offseason.

The bottom line: Jim Zorn told owner Dan Snyder he did not need top shelf offensive players or young tackles to make his offense work. Dan Snyder is taking coach Zorn at his word and if the team does not turn in a winning record you can expect to see someone else coaching the Redskins next season. Curly R prediction: 8-8.

It is true, I do not expect great things from this team. I hope to be proven wrong and if so I will write about it. The Committee for Schedule Banding has not critically reviewed the 2009 schedule for our expected range of performances, something we will do on the eve of the first regular season game.

So, my feelings and impressions may change between now and then, camp performance, who is in and who is out (Brian Orakpo!) and how the scheduled opponents look in their camps. Readers are invited to drop their early camp predictions for the Redskins 2009 season in comments.



Albert Haynesworth framed by Redskins headquarters in Ashburn Virginia: uncredited image from here (probably by Matt himself).

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